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By Brendan Morrow
The Oscars will be this Sunday, February 24. The following are predictions of the winners.
BEST PICTURE: ARGO
The Nominees:
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
What will win: Argo
If not, then…: Lincoln
What should win: Les Miserables
In terms of predictions, this one’s a no brainer. A month a go, with Ben Affleck out of the running for best director, Argo was pretty much eliminated from the race. Not since 1989 has a film won best picture without a best director nomination. Yet in the past few weeks, Argo has swept pretty much every single award show it could possibly be eligible for (the Golden Globes, SAGs, DGAs, PGAs, and the BAFTAs.) Although when the nominations first came out, it seemed to be anyone’s game, with the front-runner being Lincoln, now the pick is clear. If Argo doesn’t win, I’d be shocked.
Argo is a solid, well-crafted film which appeals to what the academy looks for in a best picture winner. While not a pick I’d get angry over, my choice is Les Miserables, the most memorable cinematic achievement of last year which, in a decade, will stand out far more than Argo will. It has that raw, honest, emotional element I look for in a big movie like this, which Argo, as wonderful as it is, lacks.
At this point, as far as I’m concerned, the best picture race is between Argo, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook as a possible dark horse candidate. Nobody else even has a chance, and really, nobody but Argo has a chance anyway.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: DANIEL DAY LEWIS
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Who will win: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
If not, then…: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Who should win: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
With a movie like Lincoln, the lead performance can make or break the film, and in this case it was definitely the latter. Lewis pulled it off remarkably well, giving us a performance of the 16th president that made him feel like a man who could exist today. Though I did love Joaquin Phoenix’s performance in The Master, and the fact that the film will go unrecognized makes me sad, it’s a clear choice here. Like Argo, anyone other than Lewis winning this would be a complete shock.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: JENNIFER LAWRENCE
The Nominees:
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
If not, then…: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Who should win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
This race is far closer than best actor, which Lewis pretty much already has in my opinion. Here, it’s a tight race between Chastain and Lawrence, but I’m betting on Lawrence. She’s the kind of rising star the academy loves to recognize, and her role in Silver Linings Playbook was a perfect way to show off her talents as an actress, balancing drama and comedy.
But my choice is Jessica Chastain, as the take charge CIA operative who made it her life’s mission to hunt down Osama Bin Ladin in Zero Dark Thirty. Chastain gave the character a sense of intensity but managed to portray it in a realistic fashion, never going too far over the top. We get the sense that this is a person who has thrown herself completely and totally into her profession, and Chastain shows us the positive and negative sides to that throughout the film, making her performance one of the standouts of 2012.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: CHRISTOPH WALTZ
The Nominees:
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Who will win: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
If not, then…: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Though Waltz did a fine job in Django Unchained, he wasn’t even the best of the supporting actors in the film. That would be Leonardo DiCaprio who, bafflingly, was not nominated (though he was at the golden globes.) My pick would be Phillip Seymour Hoffmanin The Master, playing a character that really isn’t a supporting role considering he’s the man the film is named after. While Waltz gave us pretty much what we would expect of him in Django, a solid but not overly memorable performance, Hoffman was electrifying as the cult leader Lancaster Dodd in The Master, managing to walk the line between creepily manipulative and genuinely sympathetic.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: ANNE HATHAWAY
Amy Adams, The Master
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Who will win: Anne Hathaway
If not, then…: Sally Field, Lincoln
Who should win: Anne Hathaway
Unfortunately, this will likely be among the only Les Miserables wins of the night, but Hathaway is probably the most deserving of the cast. Her performance of“I Dreamed a Dream” was absolutely breathtaking, and the highlight of the entire film. Though Sally Field and Amy Adams were both excellent in their respective roles, this is another Daniel Day Lewis situation, where for the rest of the nominees, it isn’t even really fair.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: BRAVE
Frankenweenie
Brave
Wreck-it Ralph
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
What will win: Brave
If not, then…: Frankenweenie
What should win: Wreck-it Ralph
With the animated feature film category, usually it’s another no-brainer: the Pixar movie, and for good reason. Pixar typically puts out the best animated film of the year, without much competition. But Brave, while a solid effort, was not quite up to their high standards, and not the best animated movie of the year. My pick would be Wreck-it Ralphwhich, oddly enough felt like a Pixar movie, where as Brave felt like a Disney movie, where as in actuality it was the other way around.
DIRECTOR: STEVEN SPIELBERG
The Nominees:
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Speilberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Who will win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
If not, then…: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Who should win: Steven Speilberg, Lincoln
Of these nominees, I easily pick Spielberg, although I’d go with Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) if the Academy hadn’t completely screwed up this category, leaving out him, Katheren Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), and, most shockingly, Ben Affleck (Argo.) But Spielberg did assemble a very compelling historical film with Lincoln, and is probably the most deserving of these five directors. But I really can’t stress enough how utterly bizarre this entire category is this year. Not since 1989 has a film won best picture without a best director nomination (Driving Miss Daisy), as will happen this year if Argo wins, and I expect it will.
CINEMETOGRAPHY: ROGER DEAKINS, SKYFALL
The Nominees:
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Skyfall
Life of Pi
Who will win: Roger Deakins, Skyfall
If not, then…: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Who should win: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Skyfall received a lot of critical acclaim, in part because of the wonderful direction and cinematography by Roger Deakins, who has been nominated for 10 academy awards (though he has never won.) Although the cinematography in Skyfall was far better than it had any right to be, and more memorable than a typical action blockbuster, my choice is Claudio Miranda for Life of Pi, which had some of the most breathtaking imagery I’ve seen in a movie since Avatar, especially with the 3D presentation. If there’s one award Life of Pi deserves to take away, this is definitely it.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: DJANGO UNCHAINED
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
What will win: Django Unchained
If not, then…: Zero Dark Thirty
What should win: Django Unchained
The fact that Quentin Tarantino didn’t win best original screenplay in 2010 for Inglourious Basterds is still shocking to me. The man is without any doubt one of the best writers in Hollywood today, and though Django wasn’t his strongest film, it was certainly a very compelling screenplay, which I could see reading as a standalone piece of work outside of the context of a movie. Even a lesser Tarantino script is still better than most of the writing that you’ll see in a typical movie. Though he hasn’t won since Pulp Fiction in 1994, I’m predicting that his time has come once again.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: ARGO
The Nominees:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
What will win: Argo
If not, then…: Lincoln
What should win: Lincoln
After winning big at the WGA awards, this seems to be another category Argo has locked. I’d still have to pick Lincoln here, a choice which wouldn’t shock me. The way I look at it, as with Django Unchained, I couldn’t really see reading the Argo script on its own. On the other hand, I would definitely be willing to read the Lincoln script by itself, just as an extraordinary piece of writing, with well developed characters and an interesting take on history. But it wouldn’t be the Oscars without a few undeserved wins, now would it?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: LIFE OF PI
Skyfall, Thomas Newman
Lincoln, John Williams
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
What will win: Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
If not, then: Lincoln, John Williams,
What should win: Lincoln, John Williams
Of all the losses of the night, I think this is the one that will hurt the most. Mychael Danna’s score for Life of Pi was fine. It did its job. But he’s not John Williams, and his score doesn’t even compare to Williams’ work on Lincoln. While I was disappointed that much of Lincoln lacked any music whatsoever, when the score was present, it was absolutely stunning, and the main theme has stuck with me ever since I left the theater. Until listening back to the album on iTunes, I couldn’t even recall what the main theme of Life of Pi was.
OTHER NOMINATIONS
FILM EDITING
WHAT WILL WIN: ZERO DARK THIRTY
IF NOT, THEN…: ARGO
WHAT SHOULD WIN: ZERO DARK THIRTY
PRODUCTION DESIGN
WHAT WILL WIN: LES MISERABLES
IF NOT THEN…: ANNA KARENINA
WHAT SHOULD WIN: LES MISERABLES
COSTUME DESIGN
WHAT WILL WIN: ANNA KARENINA
IF NOT, THEN…: LES MISERABLES
WHAT SHOULD WIN: LES MISERABLES
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
WHAT WILL WIN: THE HOBBIT
IF NOT, THEN…: LES MISERABLES
WHAT SHOULD WIN: LES MISERABLES
ORIGINAL SONG
WHAT WILL WIN: “SKYFALL,” SKYFALL
IF NOT, THEN…: “SUDDENLY,” LES MISERABLES
WHAT SHOULD WIN: “SUDDENLY, LES MISERABLES
VISUAL EFFECTS
WHAT WILL WIN: LIFE OF PI
IF NOT, THEN…: THE HOBBIT
WHAT SHOULD WIN: LIFE OF PI
PRODUCTION DESIGN
WHAT WILL WIN: ANNA KARENINA
IF NOT, THEN…: LES MISERABLES
WHAT SHOULD WIN: LES MISERABLES
SOUND EDITING
WHAT WILL WIN: LIFE OF PI
IF NOT, THEN…: ZERO DARK THIRTY
WHAT SHOULD WIN: ZERO DARK THIRTY
SOUND MIXING
WHAT WILL WIN: LES MISERABLES
IF NOT, THEN…: LIFE OF PI
WHAT SHOULD WIN: LES MISERABLES
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WHAT WILL WIN: AMOUR
DOCUMENTARY
WHAT WILL WIN: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
WHAT WILL WIN: OPEN HEART
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
WHAT WILL WIN: PAPERMAN
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
WHAT WILL WIN: CURFEW
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